The effects of linguistically assimilated immigrants on native employment --- evidence from Europe (JMP)

This paper investigates how labor markets adjust to influxes of immigrants over the short run. We construct a panel data set for five European countries (France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Spain) at the NUTS-2 level over the period covering 2013--2017 using data from Data for Integration Project, Eurostat, Google Trends, and the OECD. First, effects of immigration on native employment as well as conditions when those effects are positive and negative are derived theoretically using a search and matching model with a spatial component.  Second, we empirically test predictions of the economic model in a shift-share design by proposing a new instrument i.e. linguistically unassimilated and linguistically assimilated shares. Shares are obtained by applying several correction factors to Google Trends ranks to measure the degree of linguistic assimilation of various immigrant groups. We find that a ten percent increase in the relative supply of immigrants in linguistically assimilated areas increases growth in native employment on average by 0.75 percentage points. If we use a classic past settlement shares instrument, that effect is estimated to be 0.25 percentage points. In contrast, a ten percent increase in the relative supply of immigrants in linguistically unassimilated areas doesn't result in contemporaneous growth in native employment. The results are primarily driven by France and Germany. The study highlights the importance of taking into account differences in linguistically assimilated immigrants to understand immigration's effects on native employment.

Certifiably employable?: The effects of occupational regulation on unemployment duration

This paper studies effects of occupational credentials on unemployment duration. We derive a random search model to explain differences in individual unemployment duration resulting from heterogeneous effects from licenses and certificates. Our model predicts that an occupational credential with a stronger signaling or human capital effect results in a shorter individual unemployment duration. To estimate the effect of occupational regulation, we use data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) for 2013-2019. Using survival model and correcting for selection bias with two step Heckman procedure, we find that individual unemployment duration decreases on average by 3 to 9 days if an individual has a license. In contrast, business certification reduces individual unemployment duration by 24 to 27 days. Results are robust to propensity score matching approach. Our results suggest that certificates issued by businesses contain stronger signals and human capital improvements than government issued licenses.

A Noteworthy Case of Overregulation: Occupational Licensing of Public Notaries in Russia

Some licensed occupations may face additional restrictions on the number of practitioners. Russia licenses public notaries and imposes caps on both the number of licensed practitioners and the fees they charge. Using data sets from 2017 and 2021 of all public notaries in Russia and comparing variation in the changes of the caps, this paper explores effects of the cap legislation changes on the numbers of those who passed a qualifying exam and active notaries in fixed effects models. Preliminary results show a positive one to one ratio of an increase in the cap size for active notaries and mixed effects on the number of people who passed the qualifying exam. In particular, in a subset of regions where the caps are not met, a one unit increase in cap size results in a one unit increase for number of active notaries and a one unit decrease for the number of people who passed the exam. Furthermore, in a subset of regions where the caps are met, a one unit increase in cap size results in a one unit increase in number of active notaries whereas the number of people who passed the exam increases by 3 units. Given almost non-existent migration patterns for public notaries across the regions, the paper argues that the cap sizes are low and can be increased further with a possibility of future partial elimination.