The Effects of Immigration on Native Employment --- Evidence from Isolated and Integrated Ethnic Enclaves in Germany (new draft coming soon)
This paper investigates how labor markets adjust to influxes of immigrants over the short run taking into account heterogeneity of ethnic enclaves in terms of the extent of their linguistic assimilation. We construct a panel data set for Germany at the regional level over the period covering 2013--2019 using data from Data for Integration Project, Eurostat, Google Trends, and the OECD. First, effects of immigration on native employment as well as conditions when those effects are positive and negative are derived theoretically using a search and matching model with a spatial component. Second, we empirically test predictions of the economic model in a shift-share design by proposing a new instrument i.e. linguistically unassimilated and linguistically assimilated shares. Isolated enclaves are represented by the former and integrated enclaves by the latter while shares are obtained by applying several correction factors to Google Trends ranks to measure the degree of linguistic assimilation of various immigrant groups. We find that a 10% increase in the relative supply of immigrants in linguistically assimilated areas increases growth in log native employment on average by 0.16 percentage points. In contrast, a 10% increase in the relative supply of immigrants in linguistically unassimilated areas doesn't result in contemporaneous growth in log native employment. The study highlights the importance of taking into account differences in linguistically assimilated immigrants to understand immigration's effects on native employment.
Certifiably employable?: Occupational Regulation and Unemployment Duration
Occupational regulation is a labor market institution that has received a growing amount of attention by researchers. Existing research has explored the effects of occupational regulation on wages and employment. To the best of our knowledge, no existing study has estimated the relationship between occupational credentials and unemployment duration in the US. We propose a random search model to explain differences in individual unemployment duration resulting from heterogeneous effects from licenses and certification. Our model predicts that an occupational credential with a stronger signaling or human capital effect results in a shorter individual unemployment duration. To estimate the relationship between occupational credentials and spells of unemployment, we perform a survival analysis using panel data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) for 2013-2019. We find that both licensing and certification are associated with reductions in unemployment spells for Black males that are similar in magnitude. Our results provide some suggestive guidance to policymakers since certification is less costly and not mandatory like occupational licensing.
A Noteworthy Case of Overregulation: Occupational Licensing of Public Notaries in Russia
Some licensed occupations may face additional restrictions on the number of practitioners. Russia licenses public notaries and imposes caps on both the number of licensed practitioners and the fees they charge. Using data sets from 2017 and 2021 of all public notaries in Russia and comparing variation in the changes of the caps, this paper explores effects of the cap legislation changes on the numbers of those who passed a qualifying exam and active notaries in fixed effects models. Preliminary results show a positive one to one ratio of an increase in the cap size for active notaries and mixed effects on the number of people who passed the qualifying exam. In particular, in a subset of regions where the caps are not met, a one unit increase in cap size results in a one unit increase for number of active notaries and a one unit decrease for the number of people who passed the exam. Furthermore, in a subset of regions where the caps are met, a one unit increase in cap size results in a one unit increase in number of active notaries whereas the number of people who passed the exam increases by 3 units. Given almost non-existent migration patterns for public notaries across the regions, the paper argues that the cap sizes are low and can be increased further with a possibility of future partial elimination.